While Tiendas 3B and Bara multiply their pace of expansion, Walmart continues to grow comfortably—but with declining profitability. It still earns more than anyone else, yet operates under a model that is aging fast and losing touch with the new patterns of Mexican consumption.
This article was prepared by the team at Food Retail Italia, official representative of the international trade fairs Cibus and TuttoFood Milan in Latin America.
The cracks in a giant’s dominance
Walmart’s long-unquestioned dominance of Mexican retail is starting to show worrying fissures. In 2024, the company reported net sales of MXN 951.6 billion, up 8.1%, but its operating margin barely moved to 7.8%, and EBITDA rose by only 2.5%, reaching MXN 90.2 billion.
Net profit increased 4.3% year-over-year, but fell 1.4% in Q4, signaling a company straining to sustain an increasingly heavy structure.
The discounters accelerate
Meanwhile, Tiendas 3B raced ahead, posting MXN 57.4 billion in revenue, a 30.3% surge, and a remarkable 51% jump in EBITDA. However, its net income was modest—just MXN 334 million—after years of losses. Its negative free cash flow and massive capital investments reveal a fragile balance: rapid growth without financial cushion.
Bara, backed by FEMSA, achieved 37.1% revenue growth, reaching 416 stores (and expanding rapidly since), with much stronger profitability sustained by the financial strength of the parent group.
A shifting market
The competitive landscape is dizzying. Walmart’s share of household spending dropped from 44.4% to 42.8% in just one year, while 3B now reaches 91% household penetration, and Bara continues to gain ground swiftly across both urban and peripheral regions.
The Mexican consumer is redefining loyalty: they may buy in bulk at Walmart, but they return more frequently to discounters for immediate savings.
In this context, Cofece sanctions (from the Federal Competition Commission) and the pressure to maintain billion-peso investments have left Walmart reliant on its own scale—a fatigued giant forced to sustain its momentum through sheer size.
By contrast, discounters, with thin margins and lean structures, operate at the edge of endurance—but with agility and speed that allow them to win ground in real time.
The new rules of competition
The market is moving fast. Leadership is no longer measured solely in sales volume, but in agility, adaptability, and cost control.
If current trends continue, 2025 could mark the turning point—the year when Walmart’s model stops setting the rules and starts following them.
