Agricultural markets are moving in divergent directions. Hazelnuts continue to lose value under the weight of expectations for a bumper Turkish harvest, while rapeseed is once again incorporating a weather premium. Resurgent tensions in the Black Sea are bringing volatility to soft wheat prices.
Between May and July, the price of shelled Turkish hazelnuts 11/13, delivered to Europe, fell by 15%, returning to the levels of early April 2025. From the peak reached in September last year, the drop has reached 52%.
The production outlook for Turkey, the world's leading producer of nuts, is particularly significant. For the 2026/27 crop year, INC Nutfruit estimates a harvest of approximately 810 tons, up 56% from the previous year's 518 tons. The increased availability comes amid weak demand: between September 2025 and June 2026, Turkish exports decreased by 38% year-on-year, falling to their lowest levels in over fifteen crop years.
The opposite scenario applies to rapeseed. In the first half of July, the Matif contract reached €541 per ton. The European production situation does not present any significant challenges, but expected yields are 5% lower than those for 2025.
Prices are being supported primarily by heavy rains in Canada, which are increasing uncertainty about canola, and by the risk of warmer, drier conditions in Australia in the presence of an El Niño. Added to these factors is the resilience of industrial demand and the biofuel sector, which continues to support canola oil.
Regarding soft wheat, the dominant variable is geopolitical. The intensification of hostilities in the Black Sea has blocked some exports from the main Ukrainian ports and led to the closure of the Kerch Strait, which carries about a quarter of Russian grain exports.
The reaction was immediate on financial markets: over the past week, wheat has gained 12% on Euronext and 10% on the CME. Increases on physical markets have been more modest, at least for now: +5% for milling wheat in Rouen and +1,7% for basic soft wheat listed in Bologna.
The availability of the new harvest and the still high level of inventories are limiting the transmission of increases. However, the market remains exposed to changes in Black Sea routes, which could rapidly impact availability, logistics costs, and European prices.
