The 2025 harvest ended with production essentially in line with the previous year, but the real critical issue for the Italian wine sector is not so much the volumes harvested as the level of inventories, which continue to grow and risk further squeezing market prospects in a context already marked by weak demand and price pressure.
According to data submitted by Italy to the European Commission, production stands at 44,383 million hectoliters, a marginal increase of 0,7% compared to 2024. This result, as the Italian Wine Union points out, is not the result of particularly adverse weather conditions, but rather a conscious decision made in many areas to reduce yields per hectare in the main denominations, in an effort to maintain a balance between supply and demand and avoid structural imbalances in the supply chain.
This production containment strategy, while a sign of responsibility on the part of the dedicated areas, has not proven sufficient to address the current backlog of product in cellars, which currently hold 61 million hectoliters of wine, a 6% increase over the same period last year. This figure rises to nearly 68 million hectoliters, a 7,5% increase when musts are included.
UIV President Lamberto Frescobaldi emphasizes that, after two harvests of just over 44 million hectoliters, even this production level is no longer sustainable, considering that the average for the last ten years has been 47,5 million hectoliters and that the current market absorption capacity appears significantly lower than in the past, necessitating structural intervention in the regulatory framework.
According to Frescobaldi, the production structure needs to be revised through amendments to the Consolidated Wine Act, introducing tools that allow for greater flexibility and allow the system to expand or contract based on actual demand dynamics, preventing supply from remaining anchored to parameters no longer consistent with the international context.
An analysis of stocks shows that the surplus is concentrated in particular in common and varietal wines, which recorded an increase of 11,3%, and in IGT white wines, which grew by 10,5%. The increase for PDO wines was more modest, at 3,6%, with 31,7 million hectoliters in storage, a sign that the greatest suffering concerns the categories most exposed to competition and volatile demand.
The situation also appears delicate on the trade front, as observed by UIV Secretary General Paolo Castelletti, who reports a slowdown in product output of approximately 20% not only compared to the beginning of 2024, when demand from the United States peaked in anticipation of the impending tariffs, but also compared to 2023, a year not affected by any particular external shocks.
Despite limited production, bulk wine prices remain weak, with ordinary white wines—especially those used as bases for sparkling wines—showing average drops of more than 10% in the main producing regions compared to last year. Even among denomination wines, increases are rare, with prices generally stable or declining.
This trend is being impacted by the difficulties of both the domestic and international markets, with an estimated 7% decline in exports to non-EU countries by the end of 2025, a figure that is contributing to high inventory levels and fueling pressure on price lists.
According to UIV, the corrective measures that need to be implemented urgently include further reducing yields per hectare, ending exemptions for generic wines, and aligning the yields set by the regulations with those actually recorded on average over the last five years. This is in addition to a review of the system of permits for new plantings, which currently allow for an expansion of the national vineyard area by approximately 7 hectares per year.
The emerging picture is of a supply chain that, despite having demonstrated the ability to self-regulate on the production front, is now faced with a less dynamic market and growing inventories, factors that make a comprehensive rethink of supply management tools increasingly urgent.
