The 2025/2026 rice season is drawing to a close amid significant uncertainty for Italian producers. Weighing on the sector are the slowdown in paddy rice sales to the processing industry, growing competition from Asian rice in European markets, and a sharp decline in prices, while rising production costs continue to squeeze farm margins. These are the findings of the quarterly analysis of the rice and paddy rice market conducted by the Cremona-Mantua-Pavia Chamber of Commerce with the technical and scientific support of BMTI.
The situation appears particularly critical in the province of Pavia, the heart of the national rice-growing region. Since April, prices for the main paddy varieties have seen widespread declines, with losses in some cases exceeding 60% compared to the same period last year.
Among the most affected varieties, Vialone Nano stands out, with a 60% year-over-year decline in Mortara. Also severely impacted were Sant'Andrea (-61%) and Baldo (-48%), while among risotto rices, Arborio and Carnaroli dropped 31% and 27%, respectively. Lungo B, more exposed to competition from Asian products, lost over 40%, while Selenio dropped 24%, partly reflecting expectations of a significant increase in cultivated area.
Adding to the price difficulties is a slowdown in marketing. As of June 16, the paddy rice placement rate relative to marketable availability stood at 78,6%, compared to 84,7% in the previous marketing year. Transfers to the processing industry decreased by approximately 70 tons, while stocks increased by 42,5% compared to last year, with particularly significant increases for Round and Long B paddy rice.
The situation remains complex for production costs as well. Following the tensions linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf, agricultural diesel and fertilizer prices have reached very high levels, although they have gradually declined in recent weeks, aided by the easing of international tensions. Despite the decline, the price of agricultural diesel remains approximately 35% higher than a year ago.
Conflicting signals emerge from foreign trade. In the first quarter of 2026, Italian rice exports decreased by 8,8% in volume, while imports increased by 29,1%, driven primarily by purchases of paddy rice (+85,5%) and semi-milled and milled rice (+41%). The trade balance remains positive, but its value has decreased from approximately €400 million to €350 million.
Particularly significant is the growth in purchases of packaged milled rice from abroad. In the current marketing year, between September 2025 and May 2026, imports into the European Union increased by 13,7%, while in Italy the increase reached 40,6%. Pakistan, Thailand, and Cambodia are the main supplier countries, confirming the growing competitive pressure exerted by Asian producers on the European market.
The sector thus closes the season with a still uncertain outlook. Weak demand, sharply falling prices, rising inventories, and increased international competition create a complex environment for Italian rice growing, which will face the coming season by attempting to regain competitiveness in an increasingly global market.
