2025 ended as an extraordinary year for the Italian dairy industry, but the start of the new year presents a much more uncertain scenario. According to data released by the sector, last year Italy exported 680.000 tons of cheese worth €6,1 billion, rising to €6,7 billion when considering the entire dairy sector. These figures confirm the strategic role of the dairy supply chain in the national agri-food sector and the growing international demand for Italian products.
The 2025 budget shows growth of 4,6% in volume and 12,8% in value compared to the previous year, consolidating Italy's position in global markets. With this result, the country has surpassed Germany to become the European Union's leading exporter to non-EU markets. Globally, Italy ranks second in value and third in volume, strengthening its presence in several strategic areas.
Among the most dynamic markets is the Middle East, which recorded a 20% increase in Italian cheese imports in 2025. The situation is more complex in the United States and China, where results were impacted by trade policies and a less favorable economic climate, respectively.
The start of 2026, however, is marked by a new phase of geopolitical instability that risks jeopardizing these results. Tensions in the Gulf region and the ongoing conflict have altered the main maritime routes, with direct effects on the timing and costs of international trade.
The Red Sea bypass is causing significant logistical delays and increased energy and transportation costs, particularly affecting fresh and high-value products. This criticality is putting pressure on the entire dairy export chain.
"We're not simply facing a logistical disruption: this is a crisis that impacts the entire supply chain," explains Assolatte President Paolo Zanetti. "Products like mozzarella, burrata, and stracciatella cannot withstand 10-20 days of additional transit without compromising quality. Thus, we risk losing key markets in Asia at the most critical moment."
According to Zanetti, the situation requires a shift in industrial and trade policies. "It's time to abandon stopgap solutions: we need investments in innovation to extend the shelf life of our products and a European energy shield." The president of Assolatte also emphasizes the need for a more stable Common Agricultural Policy, capable of offering farmers certainty for planning investments and supporting the sector's competitiveness in the medium term.
Among the proposals, the idea of creating a geopolitical observatory dedicated to the agri-food sector stands out, with the aim of anticipating crises and supporting companies in diversifying their markets. In this context, Southeast Asia and Latin America are identified as strategic areas to focus on to strengthen the international presence of Made in Italy dairy products. "Our dairy excellence is not a guaranteed asset," Zanetti concludes. "It must be protected with vision, responsibility, and industrial policies suited to global challenges."
