Merchandise imports at major U.S. container ports are set to reach a new all-time high in July. Driving the growth is the rush by retailers and other importers to stockpile supplies ahead of the potential new tariffs expected in August, amid continued high trade uncertainty. This is according to the latest report. Global Port Tracker, created by the National Retail Federation (NRF) together with Hackett Associates.
According to Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, the advancement of the peak import season will continue throughout July. Companies are accelerating procurement to avoid any new tariffs that could increase the costs of products destined for US consumers. Persistent geopolitical tensions, including the effects of the conflict in Iran on supply chains, are also impacting the situation.
Demand remains strong thanks to the start of the back-to-school season, while companies are already preparing their assortments for the holiday season. According to the NRF, despite the economic challenges, consumers continue to spend, but price remains a key factor in their purchasing decisions.
On the trade front, the temporary 10% global tariffs introduced in February through Section 122 are set to expire on July 24. However, the Trump administration could introduce a new round of tariffs related to forced labor regulations as early as August, further fueling the rush to imports.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, also highlights how the strong increase in volumes is mainly attributable to the phenomenon of frontloading, or the advancement of orders before the tightening of tariff measures.
In May, the latest period for which definitive data is available, the ports monitored by the report handled 2,24 million TEUs (20-foot equivalent containers), an increase of 14,9% compared to the same month in 2025 and 10,1% compared to April.
For June, the estimate rises to 2,33 million TEU (+18,7% year-on-year), bringing the first-half total to 12,77 million TEU, up 2% compared to the first six months of last year.
The most significant forecast is for July, when traffic is expected to reach 2,47 million TEUs, surpassing the previous monthly record of 2,4 million recorded in May 2022 during the post-pandemic recovery.
After the summer peak, the report predicts a slowdown. Volumes are expected to decline to 2,22 million TEUs (-4,5%) in August, before settling at 1,99 million in both September (-5,7%) and October (-3,8%). November is also expected to close with a decline, with 1,92 million TEUs (-5,2%).
According to analysts, the period between May and July will be the busiest period of the entire year 2026. In recent years, the traditional peak shipping season, historically concentrated in autumn, has progressively moved forward due to tensions at ports, logistical uncertainties, and tariff policies.
Overall, US imports reached 25,4 million TEU in 2025, down slightly (-0,3%) from 25,5 million in 2024. The new record expected for July confirms how companies' procurement strategies are increasingly influenced by evolving trade policies and the need to contain the impact of future cost increases.
