The global olive oil market enters the 2025/26 campaign in a phase of apparent recovery, but without eliminating the structural fragility inherited from the last two campaigns. So I woke him up Annachiara Saguatti, Scientific Manager and market analyst of Aretè, During and online event organized by Cibus Link with the patronage of TuttoFood Milano.
The promotions of the extra virgin show a divergent dynamic between Italy and the rest of the European Union, with the product of national origin stabilized at historical heights, with an increase of around 5% between October and May; Meanwhile, the non-EU citizen suffered a drop of 45% from the start of the 2024/25 campaign, to then recover a 14% in real life.
This behavior reflects a market conditioned by a limited offer and an international demand very sensitive to prices; Italy converts its production into a specialized category, with robust domestic consumption including before record sales, while the European market has settled into a high level of production in Spain, after two extremely poor campaigns that took inventory to a minimum prices at levels without precedent.
For the 2025/26 campaign, the Spanish Agriculture Ministry anticipates a production slightly lower than that of 2024/25, at least 3% less, due to the fact that the expectations generated by the spring rains have disappeared with the waves of summer heat; The initial stocks improve compared to the previous year, although they remain at limited levels, which prevents a real normalization of the market.
Italy, for its part, faces a year of load that could exceed 300.000 tons; internal demand confirms the strength of the premium category, and Greece and Portugal maintain stable ministers. At the same time, key leaders outside the EU, such as Túnez and Turquía, brought a relevant volume in 2024/25; Furthermore, the forecasts of the Department of Agriculture of the United States point to a slight correction of Turkish production in 2025/26, around 400.000 tons.
At the global level, a campaign with production moderately lower than that of the previous cycle was expected; This is a very different situation to the 2022/23 and 2023/24 developments, but still insufficient to rebuild inventories and avoid the risk of high volatility. The prices will continue to be subject to any climatic variations, logistical tensions or questions about the demand; the market will need at least two abundant campaigns to recover stability, which obliges operators to manage risks and provision with maximum prudence, if they want to protect markets and competitiveness in an environment that would still be marked by uncertainty.
