Mixed signals are emerging from global agri-food markets, according to Areté's latest analysis, which highlights a rebound in cocoa prices while the olive oil sector remains largely stable, in a context still marked by volatility and divergent supply-demand dynamics. In the first quarter of 2026, the cocoa market is showing differing trends across the main consumption regions. In Europe, data from the European Cocoa Association indicates an 8% decline in millings year-over-year, despite a 7% recovery compared to the previous quarter, with volumes at their lowest seasonal levels since the 2011/12 crop year. North America is also experiencing a contraction, with a 3,8% decline according to the National Confectioners Association.
Partially supporting the global picture is Asia, where the Cocoa Association of Asia reports a 5% increase year-on-year and a 13% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching record levels for the period. Despite this, the overall balance of the three regions in the six months between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 remains negative, with a 4,4% decline year-on-year and volumes at their lowest levels since the 2016/17 crop year. Areté's outlook for the 2025/26 crop year indicates global consumption growth of only 0,7%, well below the historical average of 2%, against a forecast production increase of 3%. This imbalance leads to an estimated surplus of approximately 222 tonnes, also supported by improved production conditions in West Africa and the resulting strengthening of stocks.
Despite more relaxed short-term fundamentals, cocoa bean prices have seen a sharp rebound on the ICE Europe market. After falling below £2.030 per tonne at the end of February, down 77% from their January 2025 peak, prices have since recovered by around 26%, exceeding £2.600 per tonne.
This recovery is largely attributable to financial and macroeconomic factors, including profit-taking following the price collapse, geopolitical uncertainties, and fears surrounding the upcoming campaign, all of which continue to fuel market volatility.
Regarding olive oil, Areté reports an overall more stable picture, despite some production-related issues. In Spain, the world's leading producer, volumes are 10% lower than the previous season, despite an acceleration in March. However, European Commission estimates indicate a more moderate decline, 3% compared to 2024/25, accompanied by an expected increase in imports and consumption. This reading appears only partially consistent with data from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA), which shows imports down 5% between October and February, exports up 8%, and domestic consumption limited to a 1% increase.
Overall, Spanish supply is less abundant than expected and there is a stronger focus on foreign markets than domestic ones, with implications for domestic availability and European trade dynamics. Despite these discrepancies, the EU market is currently well supplied, thanks primarily to Spain's lively export activity and the contribution of a large supply from Tunisia.
This balance between supply and demand is reflected in the substantial stability of extra virgin olive oil prices, which between March and the first half of April recorded fluctuations ranging from -1% to +1% in Greece, Andalusia, and even on the Milan market for EU products. In Italy, however, prices for domestic EVOO showed a slightly more marked decline, approximately -1,5% over the same period, reflecting particularly high inventory levels.
At the end of March, in fact, inventories increased by 43% compared to the previous year, with an increase of 59% for extra virgin olive oil alone, contributing to downward pressure on domestic prices. The picture outlined by Areté therefore shows agricultural markets still heterogeneous: on the one hand, cocoa, supported by exogenous and financial factors despite a production surplus; on the other, olive oil, which benefits from a balanced supply and demand but remains exposed to production variables and inventory dynamics.
