New restrictions on purchases made through the U.S. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) could have a significant impact on the food industry and modern retail. According to research published by Numerator, states that introduce spending restrictions for beneficiaries by the end of 2026 could experience a total loss of approximately $830 million in the affected categories.
The analysis focuses on the 19 US states that have received federal waivers to limit the use of food subsidies on certain products deemed less healthy. The carbonated beverage sector is expected to be hit hardest, with a potential loss of approximately $430 million in revenue. This is followed by the candy market, with an estimated reduction of $300 million, and the energy drink market, which risks losing another $100 million.
Following the study, Montana also submitted a request for a waiver, which is expected to go into effect within the year, contributing only marginally to the overall estimated impact. Three other states have already received similar authorizations, but the measures are expected to be implemented between 2027 and 2028.
According to Numerator, by the end of 2026, approximately one-third of SNAP beneficiaries will be subject to new purchasing restrictions. This transformation could structurally alter the consumption habits of millions of families and influence the business strategies of retailers and manufacturers.
The research shows, however, that many consumers intend to continue purchasing the excluded products using their own funds. Among respondents living in states that have already received exemptions, nearly two-thirds said they would continue to purchase sugary drinks using non-SNAP funds. The same intention was expressed by 60% of participants for candy and 45% for energy drinks.
However, there are also signs of a possible shift in dietary behavior. Approximately 30% of consumers surveyed said they might replace soft drinks and energy drinks with tea, fruit juice, or coffee. A similar percentage cited fruit, fruit-based snacks, or ice cream as possible alternatives to candy.
Numerator also analyzed the effects of recent administrative interruptions affecting the program. During the fall suspension, average weekly food expenditures for beneficiary families dropped 10%, from $233 to $210. Purchase levels then stabilized in early November and gradually increased again in the following weeks.
The study, based on a survey of 1.016 SNAP recipient households conducted at the end of January and on actual purchasing data, confirms that future restrictions could pose a significant challenge for producers and distributors active in the most exposed categories, but also a potential factor in changing the food choices of American families.
