The slowdown in global agricultural markets continued in November, with international prices of major food commodities declining for the third consecutive month. This is according to the latest FAO Food Price Index, which stands at 125,1 points, down 1,2% month-over-month and now 21,9% below its peak reached in March 2022. The index is also 2,1% below its November 2024 level, signaling a progressive easing in global agri-food supply chains.
The only exception to the downward trend concerns cereals. The FAO Cereal Price Index recorded a 1,3% increase, driven by the 2,5% rise in international wheat prices. Prices are supported by several factors: potential additional demand from China for U.S. wheat, persistent tensions in the Black Sea region, and the prospect of lower plantings in Russia for the 2026 harvest. Maize is also growing, boosted by demand for Brazilian supplies, while the rice sector is seeing a downward correction due to weak demand for Indica and aromatic varieties.
The vegetable oil market returned to negative territory (-2,6%), with declines in palm, rapeseed, and sunflower oil prices offsetting higher soybean prices, buoyed by strong demand from the biodiesel sector, especially in Brazil. Meat prices also fell (-0,8%), driven by ample supply and increased global competition, particularly in the poultry segment. Pork prices were impacted by ample European output and dampened demand from China following the introduction of new tariffs. Beef prices remained stable, while sheep prices increased.
The Dairy Price Index showed a 3,1% decline, reflecting conditions of abundant exportable supplies and growing milk production in the main producing countries. The Sugar Price Index saw an even more pronounced correction (-5,9%), under pressure from the prospect of ample global supplies, with Brazil, India, and Thailand continuing to post solid production performances.
Meanwhile, the FAO has released new forecasts for world cereal production for 2025, which indicate a 4,9% increase above the record 3 billion tonnes mark. This improvement is primarily due to higher-than-expected wheat harvests—particularly in Argentina—and an expected increase in maize and rice. The latter is expected to grow by 1,6%, thanks to contributions from Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia.
Global cereal utilization in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 2,1%, while world stocks will reach a record high of 925,5 million tonnes (+6,5%). International trade is estimated to recover, increasing by 3,3% to 500,6 million tonnes. The picture, as highlighted by the AMIS Market Monitor published in parallel, confirms a more balanced market, but still exposed to volatility and geopolitical tensions.
