US retail sales showed solid year-over-year growth in November, confirming a positive start to the 2025 holiday season. This is highlighted by data from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, compiled by the National Retail Federation (NRF) based on actual credit and debit card transactions. According to the report, overall retail sales—excluding autos and fuel—grew 4,53% year-over-year, while the seasonally adjusted monthly increase stood at 0,12%. This slowdown compared to October is consistent with a more selective and value-oriented consumer environment. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay noted that many consumers likely postponed some online purchases until December due to the late Thanksgiving and the postponement of Cyber Monday. Nevertheless, the association remains confident in its forecasts for the holidays and the full year.
Core sales, which exclude food and beverage, saw a slight monthly decline (-0,04%), but a year-over-year increase of 4,66%. In the January-November period, total sales grew by 5,06%, while core sales increased by 5,22%. The NRF estimates that holiday sales in 2025, between November 1 and December 31, will grow between 3,7% and 4,2% compared to 2024, surpassing the $1.000 trillion threshold for the first time. For the full year, retail sales could reach as much as $5.480 trillion.
At a sector level, November saw year-on-year growth in nearly every category.
Digital products stand out, up 14,81%, followed by sports and cultural goods (+8,96%) and clothing (+8,16%). Grocery and beverages (+3,89%) and department stores (+3,1%) also saw growth.
Increases were more modest for health and personal care, electronics, and furniture. The building and gardening sector bucked the trend, declining 9,38% year-over-year. Overall, the data confirms a cautious but engaged consumer, with the Christmas season remaining well on track to meet expected growth targets.
