Ecuador's banana exports continued to grow in the first four months of 2026, but the progressive slowdown in growth and growing logistical and weather challenges are fueling concerns for the second half of the year. The sector, a cornerstone of the South American country's agricultural economy, closed April with exports totaling 149,26 million boxes, up 5,91% compared to the 140,93 million recorded in the same period of 2025.
The increase, corresponding to an additional 8,33 million boxes, confirms the strength of international demand for Ecuadorian bananas. However, monthly trends show a gradual loss of momentum: growth declined from 11,2% in January to 8,07% in February, to 6,89% in March, and finally to April.
Exports were primarily supported by European markets. The European Union remained the main driver of growth, with 50,32 million cases exported, a 14,66% increase, contributing significantly to the sector's overall expansion. Positive results were also seen in Russia, which imported 32,03 million cases (+9,77%), and in the Middle East, which grew by 7,46% despite the region's geopolitical and logistical challenges.
Negative signals, however, came from other markets. Africa recorded the sharpest contraction, with a 56,27% decline, while Asia and Central Asia saw declines of 5,60% and 13,63%, respectively. The US market remained largely stable, with growth of 0,50%.
On the operational front, April was marked by a paradoxical situation: abundant product availability in the plantations but difficulties in transporting the goods to international markets. The shortage of refrigerated containers, changes to shipping itineraries, shipment delays, and the effects of tensions in the Middle East on strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz slowed the flow of shipments.
Added to these problems were internal factors, including deteriorating road infrastructure, security issues along transport routes and in ports, and a shortage of skilled labor on farms. The consequences were product stockpiling, revised harvest schedules, and increasing pressure on trade conditions.
Weather conditions also favored increased production. Between the eighteenth and twenty-first weeks of the year, temperatures remained up to one degree above 2025 levels, while indicators predicting future fruit availability showed a steady improvement. However, this production potential failed to translate into a corresponding increase in exports due to logistical constraints.
Adding to the uncertainty is the possible return of the El Niño weather phenomenon. According to NOAA, there is an 82% chance that the phenomenon will develop between May and July, with the potential for very high intensity. In response, the Ecuadorian government has already declared a yellow alert in 17 of the country's 24 provinces, including key banana-producing areas such as Guayas, Los Ríos, El Oro, Manabí, and Esmeraldas.
For the banana sector, already struggling with high costs and logistical challenges, a particularly intense El Niño could cause flooding, damage to infrastructure, a decline in product quality, and further hindrance to exports.
Despite the positive results recorded in the first four months of the year, the sector is therefore approaching the second half with caution. Geopolitical tensions, international logistics challenges, and climate risk are variables that could significantly impact Ecuador's ability to maintain its current growth rate.
