The Spanish olive oil sector is linked to the 2025/26 campaign with moderate recovery expectations in a context still conditioned by the climate and limited product availability, which coincided in this regard Teresa Pérez Millán, managing director of the Interprofesional Organization of the Spanish Olive Oil, and Rafael Sánchez de Puerta, director general of Dcoop, during the online event organized by Food Link with the sponsorship of TuttoFood Milan.
The official estimates indicate one slight correction compared to the front campaign, due to the waves of summer heat that have reduced the production potential in key regions. “All of this boded well, but we enjoyed an extremely warm season that affected the evolution of the cultivar,” he said. Perez Millan, recording that the level of the packages had improved amidst the spring rains and had generated more optimistic expectations.
The two main olive growing areas, Andalucía and Castilla-La Mancha, will accumulate a combined loss of 86.000 tons, partially compensated by better performance in other regions, which translates into a total expected reduction of 43.000 tons in Spain.
“We want to keep in line with an average campaign,” admitted Pérez Millán, citing the forecast at 1.371.000 tons, slightly due to the four million million of the previous cycle. This normalization follows many of the potential hoped for in the Spanish market over two years of very low production, as global demand grew with strength.
Dcoop confirms this structural presence: “It has generated significant demand at the global level and we are looking for shorts in production,” he said Sanchez de Puerta, which attributed the phenomenon to the more direct impact of climate change on the olive tree. The largest olive cooperative in the world is dealing with products seeking up to 200.000 tons of its members, which obliges them to buy on the market to cover their marketing needs and maintain export volumes that represent between 14 and 15% of the Spanish production is 6% of the world.
The company has built a global industrial and commercial structure, with operations in more than 60 countries and plants shipped both in Andalucía and in the United States. However, “the problem we are encountering is the failure of the product”, insisted the director general, pointing out that the initial expectations of a big campaign have been reduced by the failure of rainfall in water, the most critical phase for the recovery of the tree.
As for the the prices, Sánchez de Puerta considers that the market has reached a commercial equilibrium and that the actual level is “acceptable for the consumer and very good for the producer”, with the lamp by aiming for 4 euros the kilo and the extra virgins at 5 euros. This stability favors the recovery of the market over the two years in which Spain lost volume abroad due to the lack of supply.
The main international focus continues to be United States, where, according to the management, “we keep a lot of us in the game” and where we worry about the possible imposition of new oranges, which will affect the product and put us in a key market for the growth of global consumption. Both Pérez Millán and Sánchez de Puerta coincided in that the future of the olive tree will depend on climate evolution and its ability to adapt to recurrent and recurring events over the centuries.
“The climate is affecting a lot, it is impossible that the prosperous thing after the winter does not bring a human being”, emphasized the number one of Dcoop, while the person in charge of the Interprofessional concluded that, all things considered, Spain will follow in levels that are considered medium within its series historical, but still less than what the international market needs to contain volatility.
