The slowdown in producer prices in Germany continues to reshape the cost landscape for the European food industry. According to Destatis, the domestic PPI index fell 1,8% year-over-year in October 2025, marking the eighth consecutive month in negative territory. On a monthly basis, however, a slight reversal (+0,1%) emerges, which could herald a stabilization of prices along the supply chain.
The main driver of the decline remains energy, down 7,5% compared to the previous year. For retailers and the grocery industry, this continues to translate into lower production and logistics costs, while the 0,4% monthly increase suggests caution ahead of winter. Particularly significant declines were seen in gas (-12,1%) and electricity (-8,3%), key components of processing, refrigeration, and transportation.
On the food front, the consumer goods show a more heterogeneous picture: +2,3% annually (2,3% also for food), but a monthly decline of 1,2% signals a possible normalization after months of tension. The sharp increases in some raw materials—beef +34,3% e coffee +24,7%—are already generating pressure on several grocery categories, while the price drops butter (-21,8%), sugar (-18,3%) e pork (-9,2%) they offer margins for recalibration of price lists.
Industrial production remains in decline intermediate goods (-0,5%), with favorable elements for bakery, confectionery and animal feed: prices of flours (-3,1%) e feed (-6,3%) consolidate a deflationary trend that can support the margins in the transformation. However, the volatility of metals remains high, with indirect effects on packaging: the surge in gold (+43%), silver (+37,7%) e platinum (+35,4%) it can affect the costs of machinery and technical components, while the drop in steel (-5,1%) relieves metal-based production.
Overall, the German picture confirms a context of energy and raw materials in cooling, useful for the containment of industrial costs, but with strong divergences between categoriesFor Italian retailers, brands, and co-packers operating in Germany or importing inputs from German manufacturing, 2026 could open up room for more stable pricing policies, especially in the dairy, bakery, and dry grocery supply chains, while the protein and hot beverage sectors will remain under pressure.
