In January, US retail sales returned to monthly growth and accelerated significantly year-over-year, confirming the strength of consumer spending after a record-breaking holiday season. This is according to a joint report released by the National Retail Federation and CNBC, based on data from Affinity Solutions.
According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, total retail sales, excluding autos and fuel, increased 0,2% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and 5,72% on a non-seasonally adjusted annual basis. This follows the 1,26% monthly and 3,54% annual increases recorded in December, signaling a normalization after the holiday peak but with a more robust trend.
Even more revealing is the data on core retail sales – which also excludes restaurants – which rose by 0,15% compared to December and by 5,51% compared to January 2025. In this case too, the annual comparison is significantly higher than the +3,58% in December.
"Consumers demonstrated continued resilience in January," commented NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, noting that this is the fourth consecutive month of economic growth. According to the association, spending is supported by strong household finances and rising real wages, which are strengthening purchasing power.
The January figure follows a November-December holiday season that grew 4,1% year-over-year, the best ever according to the Retail Monitor. Unlike the Census Bureau's sample surveys, the NRF indicator is based on anonymous, real credit and debit card transactions, reducing the need for subsequent audits.
In terms of product breakdown, sales increased year-over-year in eight out of nine categories. Clothing and accessories stores led the growth, with a monthly increase of 0,23% and an annual increase of 9,39%, a sign of continued strong demand in the fashion sector.
Digital products—such as e-books and video games—also performed well, recording a +1,22% monthly increase and +6,45% year-on-year growth, confirming the centrality of intangible content in consumers' shopping carts.
Health and personal care stores are growing (+0,66% month-on-month; +5,98% year-on-year) and grocery & beverage (+0,37% monthly; +5,41% annual), a sector that continues to benefit from both solid volumes and a still-sustainable price mix.
General merchandise, electronics, and furniture performed more mixedly, declining slightly monthly but still positive year-over-year. Building and gardening supplies bucked the trend, being the only ones to also see a decline year-over-year (-6,26%), signaling a weaker phase for the home sector.
Overall, the picture outlined by the National Retail Federation reinforces the idea that the American consumer remains central to the country's macroeconomic trajectory, with retail continuing to serve as the engine of an economy with a GDP of $5.300 trillion and 55 million jobs in the sector.
