In 2024, national production of durum wheat should be around XNUMX%, according to CREA forecasts. 3,5 million tons, with a decrease of 10-15% compared to the long-term average and a decline of 8% on an annual basis.
In addition to the reduction in cultivated surface area and the difficulties linked to international tensions, the decline in production was significantly affected by unfavorable climatic conditions, which mainly affected the southern cultivation area; in fact, the situation in Sicily is very complicated, especially when compared with last year's production, as is that of Puglia and Basilicata, whose production potential has been partly compromised.
In all the rest of the Italian regions, however, the crop conditions are excellent and the production estimates are very good. In these areas the only unknown is linked to the weather trend of the next few weeks, which could compromise the phytosanitary state of the crop.
This is what emerged from an initial analysis of the forecasts for expected durum wheat production in Italy and around the world presented today at the Foggia Chamber of Commerce, as part of the 2024 edition of Durum Days, the international event organized by the main players in the sector, just under a month after the start of harvesting operations in the fields.
The initiative is organized and promoted by Assosementi, Cia-Agricoltori italiani, Confagricoltura, Copagri, Fedagripesca Confcooperative, Compag, Italmopa and Unione Italiana Food, with the patronage of Siga (Italian Society of Agricultural Genetics), the collaboration of Crea and the participation among the speakers of Areté and ICG (International Grains Council) and of the sponsors Basf and Corteva.
Compared to the international picture of world wheat production, outlined by Areté analysts, after last year's decline, durum wheat production at a global level this year is globally seen to be recovering, with increases in the order of 10%, thanks to the increased production of important exporting countries: Canada (+40%), United States (+25%), Russia (+20%), Turkey (+5%).
These increases will contribute to increasing the final stocks of durum wheat at a global level by values even higher than 8-10%, a percentage that represents the consensus of analysts. However, closing inventories will remain far from long-term averages. This context explains well the reasons why prices will remain far from the peaks recorded in recent campaigns, while remaining at historically high values.
