Britain's milk production is set to peak in 2025/26, with output estimated at 12,89 billion liters, up by 3,6 % compared to the previous campaign. This is what emerges from the latest update of AHDB Dairy, which signals a performance supported by higher yields per cow and improved profit margins.
The expansion was also supported by a particularly favourable “milk-to-feed” ratio, at its highest level in almost twenty years, thanks to a reduction in feed costs of approximately 3% on an annual basis. However, starting in early 2026, the agency expects a slowdown in production, partly due to recent changes in farm-gate milk prices.
The market is already showing signs of pressure: in September the prices of butter have decreased by £510 per tonne and those of the cheese di £410, due to oversupply on the domestic market. Some operators have already announced farmgate price reductions for November, while contracts for organic or "special" milk are holding up better thanks to limited availability.
According to AHDB, the number of dairy cows in the UK has fallen by 0,6 % on an annual basis in July, a sign of a slight reduction in the livestock population. At the same time, production costs - including energy, bedding and fodder - remain high, with an average inflation of8,6 %.
In a global context of faster dairy supply growth, experts are calling on UK dairy farmers to plan more resilient strategies to deal with price volatility and future environmental constraints.
