According to new estimates from the European Commission, wine consumption in the European Union is expected to continue to decline over the next decade, reflecting a structural change in the consumption habits and preferences of European citizens. In its EU Agricultural Outlook 2025-2035, the Commission forecasts an average decline of 0,9% per year until 2035, with per capita consumption falling to around 19,3 litres, equivalent to an overall reduction of 9% compared to the period 2021-2025.
Several factors are behind the decline: increased health awareness, public policies promoting moderate alcohol consumption, and growing competition from other beverages. The report highlights how the changes are particularly marked among younger consumers, who tend to drink less alcohol than previous generations. At the same time, a more widespread preference for premium wines, consumed in smaller quantities but with greater attention to quality, is emerging.
The decline is not uniform across member countries. The most significant declines are recorded precisely in historically high-consumption states, such as France and GermanyAlongside this trend, sales of "wine-based drinks," including low- and zero-alcohol wines, are growing. However, according to the Commission, these segments will remain marginal in terms of overall volumes.
The slowdown in consumption is also affecting production. Brussels estimates an average annual reduction of 0,5% in EU wine production, which could fall to 138 million hectoliters by 2035. A key factor is also the decline in vineyard areas, projected to decline by 0,6% annually over the same period, assuming stable weather conditions and constant average yields.
The sector is also struggling with oversupply. Several countries, including France and Germany, have requested EU interventions to support vineyard uprooting programs. In December, European Parliament e European Council They have reached a preliminary agreement on a package of measures to support the sector, including the use of EU funds for explantation plans.
On the trade front, the Commission warns that export growth is also at risk. Shipments to the United States, the main outlet market, are temporarily declining. Overall, EU wine exports are expected to decline by 0,6% annually between 2025 and 2035, while imports are expected to decline by 1,9% annually.
even the UK, Europe's second largest export market, is showing signs of weakness. Growing demand in regions such as Latin America and Africa, the report concludes, will not be enough to offset the slowdown in key markets, confirming a phase of profound transformation for European wine.
