World food commodity prices continue to trend slightly downward. In January, the FAO benchmark recorded its fifth consecutive monthly decline, driven by lower international quotations for dairy, sugar, and meat.
The FAO Food Price Index stood at 123,9 points, down 0,4% from December and 0,6% year-over-year. This figure confirms a phase of relative stabilization in global food markets, despite highly differentiated dynamics among individual sectors.
In the cereal sector, the FAO index recorded a slight quarterly increase (+0,2%), despite marginal declines in wheat and maize. Abundant wheat inventories offset weather concerns in Russia and the United States, while ample global maize availability offset the effects of adverse weather in Argentina and Brazil and strong demand for ethanol production in the United States. Rice bucked the trend, rising 1,8%, driven by stronger demand for aromatic varieties.
The vegetable oil index, on the other hand, rose sharply (+2,1%). Palm oil prices rose due to seasonal production slowdowns in Southeast Asia and solid international demand. Soybean oil also recovered, supported by reduced export availability in South America and expectations of robust biofuel demand in the United States. Sunflower oil also rose, while rapeseed oil declined due to ample supply in the European Union.
On the meat front, the FAO index fell 0,4%, primarily impacted by declining pork prices amid abundant supply and weak international demand. Poultry prices, however, rose, driven by Brazil, while beef and lamb prices remained stable overall.
Dairy products saw a marked decline (-5%), with cheese and butter declining due to high availability, while skimmed milk powder prices strengthened thanks to the recovery in demand in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia. Sugar also fell (-1%), in the wake of expectations of increased supply linked to India's production recovery and positive prospects in Thailand and Brazil.
At the same time, the FAO reports a strengthening of the structural framework for cereals. World production in 2025 is estimated at 3 023 million tonnes, with record harvests for wheat, coarse grains, and rice. Global stocks are forecast to increase by 7,8%, bringing the stocks/use ratio to 31,8%, the highest level since 2001. This balance contributes to market stability, although—the FAO warns—it does not eliminate the vulnerability of the global agri-food system to future shocks.
