After months of decline, agricultural markets are rising again, putting food commodities back in the spotlight. The new tension is being driven primarily by potatoes and cocoa, which have seen sharp increases in international market prices in recent weeks, fueled by climate, geopolitical, and energy factors.
According to Areté's analysis, the average monthly price of potatoes on the EEX financial market increased by 143% in April compared to March, interrupting a long deflationary phase that had caused prices to lose approximately 81% from the peak reached in August 2025.
The turnaround comes amid growing pressure on production costs. Tensions in the energy market, which are increasing the cost of agricultural processing and storage, are having a major impact, along with the prospect of lower European production.
Preliminary estimates indicate a 9% decline in production in the European Union, primarily due to a 5% reduction in cultivated areas. This scenario could also have repercussions along the industrial supply chain, given the significant role of processed potatoes in the European food sector.
But cocoa is especially under pressure again after the sharp decline seen in recent months. On the ICE Europe market, cocoa bean prices have risen 52% since the end of February, reversing the trend that had seen prices decline by around 80% between the beginning of 2025 and February 2026.
According to Areté, the recovery in prices is primarily driven by fears about global supply. These concerns particularly concern Ivory Coast, the world's leading producer, where weather conditions are jeopardizing both the final part of the interim harvest and the prospects for the next 2026/27 campaign.
Operators are reporting lower-than-average rainfall and weaker-than-seasonal pod formation. This is fueling fears of a new limited production season, further exacerbated by the increasing likelihood of a return of the El Niño weather phenomenon.
Further complicating the situation is the rising cost of fertilizers, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Rising production costs, combined with the reduction in minimum guaranteed prices for West African farmers, risks curbing investment in crops and further reducing future productivity.
The new tensions over agricultural commodities come at an already delicate time for the European food industry, which in recent months has had to contend with the instability of raw materials and increasingly price-sensitive consumers.
For processing companies, the return of volatility could translate into renewed pressure on margins and possible repercussions on consumer price lists, especially in the confectionery and snacks sectors, which are heavily exposed to the performance of cocoa.
