In the context of the slowdown of German industry, agri-food emerges as one of the most resilient sectors, supported by a more stable underlying demand and a growing contribution from exports. The data for December and for the whole of 2025 released by Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) in fact, they indicate a relative stability of consumer goods, a category which includes a large part of food processing.
In December 2025, consumer goods production increased by 0,5% on a monthly basis, sharply countering the decline in capital goods (-5,3%) and intermediate goods (-1,2%). This confirms the food industry's defensive role during a period of cyclical weakness in heavy manufacturing.
On the energy front, despite a still complex environment, the agri-food sector is less exposed than energy-intensive industries, which are expected to record production levels still 17,8% lower in 2025 than in 2021. For the food supply chain, this translates into more manageable cost pressures compared to sectors such as basic chemicals, metals, and materials.
The dynamics of foreign trade contribute to strengthening the picture. In December 2025, German goods exports are expected to grow by 4,0% compared to November and by 2,7% year-on-year, reaching €133,3 billion. Exports for 2025 as a whole are expected to rise by 1,0% to €1.569,6 billion. Against a backdrop of cautious domestic consumption, exports also represent a key channel for the agri-food sector, traditionally well positioned on EU markets.
Exports to European Union countries are expected to increase by 4,2% in 2025, confirming the centrality of the EU market for German food products, while the overall trade balance remains largely positive, with a surplus of €202,8 billion for the year.
Overall, between declining industrial production and moderately growing foreign trade, The agri-food sector remains one of the pillars of stability of the German industrial economy., capable of mitigating the negative phases of the cycle and supporting value along the supply chain, especially through foreign markets.
