U.S. retail sales during the 2026 holiday season are expected to surpass the $1 trillion mark for the first time, reaching $1.013 trillion, up 4,2% from last year. This is what emerges from the annual forecasts of the National Retail Federation (NRF), which confirm that American consumption is holding up despite pressures from inflation and rising household costs. The expected result would represent an improvement compared to 2025, when holiday sales increased by 3,1%, reaching a total of $972 billion. The estimates cover the period between November 1 and December 31 and take into account retail sales, excluding automobile dealerships, gas stations, and restaurants. “This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will continue to prioritize the holiday season while maintaining a close eye on their budgets,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the NRF, noting that retailers are preparing to meet demand through competitive pricing, convenience, and a diverse offering across all budgets. According to Mark Mathews, chief economist and executive director of research at the federation, consumers continue to be one of the main drivers of the American economy, even though inflation, rising fuel prices, and pressures on household budgets could lead to different purchasing behaviors across income brackets. In this scenario, commercial distribution aims to intercept a demand that is still sustained, but characterized by an increasing focus on value for money and cost management. The positive outlook is also reflected in seasonal hiring, although companies are maintaining a cautious attitude. The NRF predicts that American retailers will hire between 325 and 375 temporary workers to cover the holiday season, a level essentially in line with the estimated 356 seasonal positions in 2025. High fuel prices, persistent inflation, still-high interest rates, and household debt are mainly holding back further employment growth, factors that are pushing companies to carefully plan for workforce expansion. The federation's forecasts are developed using econometric models that consider various indicators, including consumption, disposable income, employment, wages, inflation, and monthly sales trends. The picture outlined by the NRF therefore highlights a still dynamic US market, in which the distribution's ability to offer convenient offers and assortments suited to different budgets will be crucial to sustaining sales growth during one of the most commercially important periods of the year.
