The global grain market is seeing the emergence of a significant potential disruptor. As reported by AHDB, Russia is considering introducing a cereal export quota of 20 million tonnes for the period February 15 – June 30, 2026, a level nearly double last year's quota of around 10,6 million tonnes, which applied only to wheat and mixed grain.
The measure, anticipated in a document from the Russian Grain Union, would this time also include corn and barley: an expansion that could put pressure on supply chains and global trade flows. Meanwhile, on the British market, feed wheat futures rose for the fourth consecutive session, with the May 2026 contract closing at £180,50 a ton, its highest since August. International markets also saw gains: in Chicago, wheat rose 1,2%, reaching its highest levels since July, while in Paris, the milling wheat contract advanced 0,5%.
The dollar's appreciation has also weakened the euro to a two-month low, boosting the competitiveness of European wheat on the global market despite competition from the Black Sea and Argentina. For European and Italian grain operators, the prospect of an increased Russian export quota represents a risk that must be monitored carefully. If Moscow were to decide to limit volumes or introduce more restrictive conditions, available supply on the international market could decline, pushing up wheat, corn, and barley prices.
A price increase, such as the one already observed, would have direct repercussions on the supply costs of agri-food supply chains, particularly animal feed and industrial feed. Italian companies will need to assess potential supply tensions from traditional supplier countries and consider geographical diversification strategies. At the same time, the weakness of the euro benefits European exports but also increases import costs for dollar-denominated raw materials and inputs, such as fertilizers and transportation.
The measure proposed by Moscow, more far-reaching than the previous one, could generate further turbulence in the global grain market, adding further supply risk to an environment already marked by volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. For European buyers, and especially Italian ones, it will be crucial to review contractual coverage, prudently plan purchasing schedules, and closely monitor the evolution of Russian trade policies in the coming months.
