The European pig market closes 2025 in a context of strong instability, marked by falling prices, increasing supply and an event destined to leave a profound mark: the takeover of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain, the Union's leading producer and exporter. According to the latest updates, European prices for category S pigs have fallen to 149,24 p/kg, the lowest level since March 2022, with a loss of 5,35p in the last four weeks. The impact is the excess availability, combined with weaker demand, in a context where the price differential with the United Kingdom has exceeded 53 p, making the EU product particularly competitive for buyers.
EU production between January and August reached 14,4 million tons, up 3% year-over-year, driven by Spain (+6%), Poland (+5%), and Italy (+4%). Slaughter volumes also grew by 1%, to 148,6 million head, strengthening domestic supply but contributing to downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, exports remained stable: 2,9 million tons In the first nine months (+1%), despite the slowdown in key Asian markets. China remains the leading export destination with 820.100 tons, but shipments fell 2%, penalized by anti-dumping measures and declining local demand. The contraction to Japan was more pronounced (-20%), while Vietnam recorded a 22% increase, driven by European supplies of offal and fresh meat in response to the ASF outbreaks in the country.
Imports, amounting to 99.600 tonnes (-3%), reflect greater production self-sufficiency, with the United Kingdom as the main supplier, and a sharp reduction in shipments from Chile and Switzerland. However, the real breaking point for 2026 concerns ASF in Spain, located in Catalonia, an area that represents approximately 40% of national productionDespite the presence of regionalization systems that allow for trade continuity with the EU, the UK, and partly China, Spanish products are losing access to the main global markets outside the EU.
The expected consequence is a massive reflux of volumes towards the domestic market, with sharply reduced prices and a concrete risk of competitive displacement For other European producers, Germany and France could benefit only marginally from the reallocation of global demand, as they remain limited by health restrictions or production capacity. The outlook is therefore that of a European market characterized by structural oversupply, margin pressures and increasing price volatility, while non-EU exporters – Brazil, the US and Canada – are positioned to absorb the demand left uncovered by Spain.
