This article was developed by the team of Food Retail Italy, official representative of the international fairs Cibus y TuttoFood Milan in Latin America.
In 2025 Latin America has entered a phase of desinflación cases generalizada, even at two speeds, with a group of countries that are able to reach the inflation objectives of their central banks y others who continue to operate under high inflation regimes the exceptional. El scenario for 2026, following the International Monetary Fund, the OECD and the Banco Mundial, aims at a continuation of the convergence process, but with a slower "last kilometre", fragile and exposed to external shocks, in particular the evolution of the type of exchange rate, capital flows and prices of raw materials, especially food and energy.
During 2025, Food inflation has shown very different behaviors within the region. Peru It is located among the most orderly cases of the desinflationary cycle, with the non-alcoholic food and drink category showing moderate variations and a relatively stable price environment. Chile has advanced in normalization at the peaks of previous years, with food inflation reaching 3,6% annually in November and an accumulated increase of 4,5% in the year, compatible with a scenario of progressive return to historical levels. MexicoOn the other hand, it has kept food inflation at low levels, around 2,6% year-on-year until the end of 2025, although with signs of slight reactivity in the last part of the year that reabsorb the debate over fiscal and commercial risks in the short term.
Brazil presents a more complete profile. Although food inflation in the home has been at around 2,5% annually, the general context is marked by an aggregate inflation of around 5%, expectations at the top of the objective and a prudent monetary policy in view of the persistence of pressure on services and wages. En Colombia, food inflation has remained higher, with taxes higher than 5% annually in 2025, reflecting a slower adjustment process and greater sensitivity to logistical and agricultural costs.
The Argentine case It is the most extreme and, at the same time, the most dynamic. The year 2025 was marked by a very intense deceleration of inflation between the exceptional levels of 2024. At the end of the year, annual food inflation was around 28–30%, still high in absolute terms, but very high lower than the previous maximums. In IMF statistics, the annual average continues to rise because it incorporates the first months of the year, although the trend is clearly decreasing. En Ecuador, the behavior has become radically different, with a slight food deflation reaching -0,4% interannual, consistent with a very low macroeconomic environment of inflation, while in Uruguay food inflation has been located at around 5,2%, at the top of the general index but lower than imbalances observed in other regional markets.
De facing 2026, the mayoría of countries does not have specific official forecasts for food inflation, but macroeconomic orientations allow us to anticipate a continuation of the moderation process. The IMF predicted a new significant increase in inflation for Argentina have low levels of two digits, Mexico should converge to 3% in the second half of the year even with risks I go up in the short plaza, and Brazil will face a slow and incomplete desinflation process, with expectations to date for the top of the objective. En Chile, Peru and Colombia the central scenario is gradual normalization, always conditioned to the evolution of the type of exchange and of the raw materials, while Ecuador and Uruguay are part of a situation of greater relative stability.
In addition, the most probable scenario for 2026 is a receding food inflation in much of Latin America, but it would still be vulnerable. The region will follow the volatility of agricultural and energy prices, atos movimientos del dólar or fiscal policy decisions, factors that rapidly translate into consumer prices. For food retail and large-scale distribution, this context implies a less inflationary environment than in the recent past, but to a lesser extent than full normality, in which the management of pricing, the development of the distributor's brand and the promotional intensity will follow being key strategic factors.
