Eggs at record highs, processing tomatoes stagnating at high levels, and olive oil prices affected by weather uncertainties in Spain: these are the main findings from Areté's latest "Market Pills." Since mid-May, prices have increased 4%, returning to the records already reached at the end of 2025. The value of caged eggs recorded by the Single National Commission reached €2,38/kg, an increase of 13% year-on-year and a whopping 43% compared to February 2024. In a European context characterized by supply slowed by avian influenza, the rigidity of demand continues to support prices and compress the level of self-sufficiency. In 2025, 699 outbreaks were recorded in farms in the European Union, compared to 259 in 2024 and 476 in 2023, with a sharp acceleration in the last quarter, when 435 cases were recorded. The total exceeded the ten-year average by 23%, and approximately 13% of the outbreaks involved laying hen farms. This trend was confirmed in January 2026, with 91 outbreaks compared to 44 in the same month in 2025; 11 involved laying hens. In Italy, as of September 29, 2025, a total of 60 outbreaks have been confirmed, of which 9 in January 2026 alone. The control measures required by Delegated Regulation (EU) 2020/687 have been implemented in the protection and surveillance zones.
As for processing tomatoes, prices for processed tomatoes recorded by the Parma Chamber of Commerce remain stable, with no significant changes compared to previous weeks. The market remains at historically high levels, in line with the 2022/23 season, after which no significant declines were recorded. The WPTC's initial forecasts for the 2026/27 season indicate global production will remain stable at 40,7 million tonnes (up 1% compared to 2025/26), but still far from the over 44 million tonnes of the previous three seasons. In Italy, negotiations between industry and producers for the 2026 price have begun in the North, but an agreement appears distant; in the South, negotiations have not yet begun. Processors' intentions indicate 3 million tonnes in the North and 2,7 million in Central and Southern Italy, for a total of 5,7 million tonnes, a 2% decrease compared to 2025.
Spanish production projections for 2025/26 remain uncertain. EU extra virgin olive oil listed in Milan rebounded by 2% in the first ten days of February compared to the January average, returning to December levels, while Italian EVOO stabilized despite a 53% increase in national stocks at the end of January year-on-year, driven by competition from EU products. The EU Commission's latest estimates have revised Italian production upward (300–310 tonnes), while figures for Portugal and Greece are lower than expected. Official forecasts for Spain remain stable (-3% compared to 2024/25), but winter rains are slowing the harvest, posing potential risks of product and quality losses. At the end of January, cumulative production was 17% lower than the previous year, and according to local sources, at least 50 tonnes of oil were estimated to have been lost in Jaén, with a third of the harvest still unfinished.
