U.S. retail sales returned to growth in October, posting gains on both a monthly and annual basis, ahead of the holiday shopping season. According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, compiled by the National Retail Federation (NRF) in collaboration with Affinity Solutions, overall sales – excluding auto dealerships and gas stations – increased 0,6% from September and 5% year over year.
"Sales increased in October as consumers prepared for the holidays," commented Matthew Shay, president and CEO of NRF. "Despite mixed economic data, spending remains solid, supported by rising wages, low unemployment, and wealth from financial markets. These factors point to strong consumer spending heading into the holidays."
Core sales—which exclude restaurants, dealerships, and gas stations—also rose 0,6% month-over-month and 4,9% year-over-year. In the first ten months of the year, total sales increased by 5,1%, while core sales grew by 5,3%.
The NRF forecasts a sales increase of between 3,7% and 4,2% for the 2025 holiday season compared to 2024, for a total value exceeding 1 trillion dollarsUnlike Census Bureau data, the Retail Monitor uses anonymous, real-world credit and debit card transactions, avoiding subsequent audits.
Sector analysis shows increases in almost all categories. The best performances are recorded in digital products, up 2,02% on a monthly basis and 22,4% on an annual basis. Followed by clothing and accessories (+1,42% and +7,9%), sporting goods and leisure (+0,09% and +7,2%), general stores (+0,58% and +7%) and electronics and household appliances (+0,13% and +6,6%).
Also on the rise food and drink (+0,59% monthly and +4,1% annual) and personal care (+0,58% and +1,9%). On the other hand, decreasing furniture and home (-0,08% and -1,7%) and building and gardening materials (-0,81% and -8,5%). Overall, solid consumer spending and consumer confidence suggest a positive end to the year for US retail.
