The escalation of the Iranian conflict is also beginning to have tangible effects on Italian wine, with an initial estimate of the impact on foreign markets amounting to approximately €80 million. The alarm has been raised by the Italian Wine Union (UIV), which reports orders already being blocked in around twenty countries, particularly in the Gulf area and neighboring regions. The disruption to trade represents only the first sign of a broader crisis that threatens to impact the entire wine supply chain. According to President Lamberto Frescobaldi, the sector is facing a combination of critical factors that go well beyond geopolitics, involving production costs, logistics, and global demand.
On the cost front, the greatest concerns concern the so-called "dry" raw materials—glass, paper, cardboard, capsules, and cages—the price increases of which could translate into a 10% to 20% increase in the final price of the cheapest bottles. This impact is particularly significant for entry-level products, where margins are already compressed.
Transport dynamics further complicate the situation. Domestically, the first tariff increases are being recorded, while container costs on international routes are estimated to rise between 20% and 50%, further weakening the competitiveness of Italian exports. The sector is already weakened at this stage. Indeed, in recent months, wineries have also had to absorb the effects of US tariffs, which have led to an 11% reduction in average export prices in 2025 and 13% in the first quarter of 2026. This pressure has already eroded margins and investment capacity.
In this context, the ability to sustain further additional costs appears limited. "We are unable to absorb them," is the message coming from the UIV leadership, with the concrete risk that the increases will be passed along the supply chain to the final consumer, further depressing demand. Beyond the industrial aspects, uncertainties arise related to tourism and wine tourism, key levers for promoting Italian wine on international markets. Any decline in tourist flows could further impact sales, especially in areas with a strong winemaking vocation.
Furthermore, it remains difficult to quantify the overall macroeconomic impact at this time. The risk of renewed inflation or a global economic slowdown could exacerbate already declining demand, further weakening the sector's equilibrium. For this reason, UIV calls for rapid intervention by the Italian government and European institutions, with targeted measures to support businesses and mitigate the effects of a crisis that, from a geopolitical one, risks rapidly transforming into an economic one for one of the most symbolic sectors of Made in Italy.
