The 2025/26 olive oil campaign is shaping up to deliver two diverging trends: Italy is on course for a notable recovery, while global output is expected to contract by half a million tonnes compared with the previous season.
For Italy, the outlook is markedly brighter. Industry forecasts suggest national production will exceed 300,000 tonnes, returning to levels consistent with a “medium-good” harvest year. Southern regions are set to drive the rebound: Puglia, Calabria and Sicily all report favourable agronomic conditions, with Calabria and Sicily each expected to surpass 35,000 tonnes, while Sardinia should remain steady at around 4,500 tonnes. The picture is more mixed in central and northern regions, where the olive fly remains a source of uncertainty, though no sharp declines are foreseen. Much, however, will depend on autumn rainfall and the absence of extreme weather events, particularly in Puglia, the linchpin of Italy’s olive oil balance.
Globally, the mood is less upbeat. USDA projections point to world production of 3.01 million tonnes, down from 3.51 million in 2024/25 — a 9.5 per cent decline. Spain, the dominant producer, is forecast at 1.2–1.3 million tonnes, well below expectations and significantly under the previous year’s levels. The EU as a whole is projected at 1.98 million tonnes, a 4.7 per cent fall, reflecting the sector’s fragile condition amid climatic volatility and depleted stocks.
Against this backdrop, on October 17 an online event will be broadcast live from the Pantaleo olive groves in southern Italy, at the height of the harvest season. Leading experts from Italy and Spain — together accounting for more than 60 per cent of global production — will debate the outlook. The event, held under the patronage of Milan’s TuttoFood International Fair, will be subtitled in English to reach a worldwide audience of industry stakeholders.
For the trade, the season ahead offers both opportunities and challenges: Italy is poised to regain commercial strength through higher volumes, while on the global stage supply shortages may sustain price pressure and intensify competition for access to product.
