Weather is impacting the European processing tomato and potato markets, fueling supply uncertainty and, in the latter case, causing a sharp increase in prices. This is according to analyses published by Areté in the new edition of "Market Insights." At the beginning of September, the European processing tomato season is well advanced in harvesting and shipments to processing plants, but final volumes remain difficult to estimate.
Heat waves and localized thunderstorms have negatively impacted both yields and Brix levels, which measure the sugar content of the product and are one of the main quality parameters used by the processing industry. The greatest challenges concern Southern and Western Europe, where climate trends have led to a downward revision of production forecasts for France and Spain, leaving margins of uncertainty in other countries as well.
Italy, on the other hand, is bucking the trend, with the World Processing Tomato Council confirming the upward revision already indicated in August. Domestic production estimates have increased from 6,1 to 6,35 million tonnes, representing a 4% increase compared to the forecasts made in July and a 9% increase compared to the 2025 harvest.
According to Areté's calculations, the improvement in Italy's prospects is primarily driven by the expansion of cultivated areas. In Northern Italy, the increase in investments was driven by incentive prices for tomatoes destined for processing, while in Southern Italy, and particularly in Puglia, the greater availability of water resources contributed.
Despite the overall positive picture, the final results for Italy will also depend on the weather in the final weeks of the campaign. The quality of the produce harvested so far is considered good, but the Brix level is below average, and concerns remain for late-season crops, already under pressure from the high temperatures recorded in July.
Tensions are more pronounced in the European market for potatoes intended for industrial processing, where sharp price increases were recorded between July and August. On the PotatoNL price list, the Fries category intended for large-scale processing saw a 180% increase, while the category aimed at smaller businesses rose by 146%.
Over the same period, the fast food segment saw a 161% increase, while in France, prices for the Fontane variety intended for processing increased by a staggering 325%. These increases confirm the market's reversal after the lows reached during the previous marketing year.
According to Areté, the price recovery primarily reflects expectations of a contraction in European supply in the 2026/27 crop year, driven by the reduction in cultivated areas and progressively worsening weather conditions. Agreste's first official forecast estimates French potato production to be 22% lower than in 2025.
In other major European producing countries, repeated heatwaves and drought are also dampening harvest prospects. The consequences could affect not only the quantity available, but also the quality and size of potatoes, with fewer products suitable for industrial processing. Weather conditions could also increase storage difficulties, further accentuating the pressure on supply in the coming months.
The picture outlined by Areté therefore shows two markets united by the growing impact of climate, but characterized by different dynamics: Italian tomatoes maintain favorable production prospects, despite several qualitative uncertainties, while European potatoes are facing a season marked by reduced availability and higher prices.
