The slowing global economy and increasing volatility in international trade continue to significantly impact the agri-food system, from agricultural production to grocery and beverage distribution. According to the latest data released by Istat, the context of unstable trade policies is weighing on trade, while the third quarter saw mixed signals: a moderate acceleration in GDP in China and the euro area and an easing of pressure in the United States, where the October rate cut is aimed at supporting domestic demand.
For Italy, the preliminary estimate indicates GDP will remain stable compared to the previous quarter, in line with Germany but less impressive than France and Spain. This trend also reflects the evolution of the food sector, still impacted by the cumulative effects of energy prices and the normalization of demand after two extraordinary years in terms of volumes and prices.
Summer exports showed a slight rebound (+1,2% June-August), driven particularly by wine, preserves, pasta, and fresh produce, while imports fell 0,3% over the same period, driven by lower agricultural commodity costs and increased self-sufficiency in some supply chains. On the manufacturing front, September saw the industrial index rise 2,8%, offsetting the August slump. However, the third quarter as a whole remained negative (-0,5%), with mixed performances in the beverage and processed goods sectors.
Employment grew in September, with positive signs in the food and beverage industries, where there was an increase in permanent contracts compared to a decline in seasonal workers. Large-scale retail trade also continues to recruit, especially in the fresh produce and logistics sectors.
On the price front, the October HICP confirmed a slowdown (+1,3% year-on-year), remaining below the euro area average. However, the most significant data concerns food: between October 2021 and October 2025, food prices increased by 24,9%, almost eight points higher than the overall index (+17,3%). The 2022-2023 surge was driven by the surge in energy and fertilizer costs, which particularly affected unprocessed food. Over the past two years, however, price growth has been more moderate, supported in part by the recovery in agricultural margins after the peak of inflation.
The challenge of balance remains central to the sector: protecting profitability along the supply chain, maintaining export competitiveness, and managing a consumer who, while less pressured than in 2023, continues to prioritize convenience, transparency, and quality.
