Italy is preparing for a harvest of 41,1 million hectoliters of wine and must, down 7,4% from the 44,4 million hectoliters expected in 2025, but it retains its leading position among European and global producers. This is according to estimates from the Agricultural Markets Observatory of the European Commission's Directorate-General for Agriculture, compiled by the Italian Wine Union Observatory and AGEA data. The picture paints a year anticipated by weather conditions and challenging for the main producing countries, with differing outcomes across the Union.
Expected Italian production is below both the 2020-2026 average and the 2000-2006 average, when volumes reached 50,4 million hectoliters. In a long-term comparison, however, Italy has reduced production the least among the three major European producers: the projected decline over the past twenty years is approximately 10%, compared to 13% in Spain and over 25% in France. This figure is significant given Italian stocks, which exceed the quantities of an entire harvest, and the structural decline in consumption that has affected both the domestic and international markets for years.
The main development of the season is Spain's overtaking of France. Spanish production is expected to reach 37,6 million hectoliters, a 13,4% increase compared to 2025, enough to secure second place in the producer rankings. France, on the other hand, is expected to record 33,8 million hectoliters, a 2% decrease from the previous year and in line with forecasts released in recent months. For the French sector, this result would confirm a particularly sharp decline compared to the average levels of the last twenty years.
Overall, European Union production is estimated at 139,2 million hectoliters, essentially stable compared to 2025, but more than 16% lower than the twenty-year average. The balance of the EU figure thus arises from the offsetting of the recovery in some countries and the declines recorded in others, without marking a return to past volumes.
In addition to Spain, Germany, Portugal, and Romania are also seeing growth. German production is expected to increase from 7,5 to 8 million hectoliters, Portuguese from 5,9 to 6,6 million, and Romanian from 3,4 to 4,5 million. The outlook is more challenging for Hungary, where volumes are expected to drop from 3 to 1,75 million hectoliters, and for Austria, expected at 1,74 million compared to 2,5 million the previous year. Greece, on the other hand, is expected to remain stable at 1,66 million hectoliters.
For the Italian supply chain, production leadership is therefore coupled with the need to compete with a market that is absorbing less wine. The decline in harvests comes amid high inventories, while the greater stability of volumes compared to other major producers makes the relationship between supply and demand crucial. Interpreting the data not only concerns the quantity harvested, but also the sector's ability to find market outlets in a context of progressively declining consumption.
