International food commodity prices are rising again, under pressure from transportation difficulties and weather conditions that limit the availability of some products. In September 2026, the FAO index averaged 136 points, up 1,5% from August and 5,8% year-over-year, with increases especially for cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils.
For the agri-food sector, the picture signals new pressures on supplies, compounded by higher energy and logistics costs. FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero highlights a persistent and increasingly widespread rise in prices, fueled by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, and by climate shocks. If these tensions were to continue, he warns, they could quickly impact consumer food prices, especially in countries most dependent on food and energy imports.
The rise in cereals is among the most notable signs: the category index is up 5,1% compared to August and stands 17,2% above the September 2025 level. Wheat is up 6,3%, supported by logistical constraints in the Black Sea area and dry weather in some parts of North America ahead of planting, while corn is up 5,6%.
The latter is weighed down by concerns about yields in the United States, the reduced availability of exportable product from Brazil, and trade barriers in the Black Sea. Uncertainty over shipping through Hormuz is also supporting the prices of raw materials used for biofuels, including corn itself. Rice prices are also rising, up 1,4% due to weather concerns and seasonal supply constraints.
Sugar prices rose 6,1% monthly, amid the prospect of lower global supplies in the 2026/27 season. The upside was driven by expectations of lower production in Thailand, below-normal rainfall and a strengthening El Niño in India, heavy rains in central and southern Brazil, and a decline in sugar beet acreage in the European Union.
Vegetable oils rose 0,9%, driven by palm oil, due to sustained international demand and concerns over the consequences of dry weather in Southeast Asia. Meat prices bucked the trend, dropping 1,1% thanks to abundant exportable pork and poultry supplies; Brazilian beef prices, however, rose, supported by increased US demand. Dairy prices recorded a slight decline of 0,1%, with the decline in cheese prices offsetting increases in milk powder prices.
On the production front, the FAO forecasts a world cereal harvest of 2,979 billion tonnes in 2026, down 2,1% from 2025, but still the second-highest on record. The improved outlook for Australian wheat does not offset the downward revision for coarse grains, which are negatively impacted by heat and drought in the European Union and the United States. For rice, unevenly distributed monsoon rains are reducing production expectations in India.
Global cereal utilization in the 2026/27 season is estimated at 2,966 billion tonnes, while ending stocks are expected to remain essentially stable at 950 million tonnes. International trade is expected to be weaker, down 3,5% to 505,8 million tonnes, partly due to restrictions on Black Sea routes and insufficient alternative transport capacity.
Finally, the AMIS monitoring program, hosted by the FAO, draws attention to high freight rates, higher fertilizer prices, and persistent logistical difficulties. El Niño, especially for rice in South and Southeast Asia, further complicates the situation: during these events, global yields are typically 1–1,5% lower than expected, adding uncertainty to supply prospects.
