In recent days, a well-known national economic newspaper published a survey that deserves attention, not only for what it says about the country, but above all for its implications for our sector. It's asurvey that photographs the state of mind of young people in Italy, France, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom, and the result for Italy is merciless: we are the most distrustful country in Europe.
The data speak for themselves. 58% of young Italians believe family policies are inadequate, against 21% of the French and 24% of the English. Only 11% say that the work context facilitates the construction of a family project, while in France the share rises to 49% and in the United Kingdom to 48%.
Even more significant is the data regarding parenthood: 55% of Italians do not believe that institutions actually recognize those who decide to have a child, compared to 39% of Germans and 41% of Spaniards. But it's the last point that's most striking: 77% of Italians say that the decision to have children depends entirely on the help of their family of origin.
We are the only country where parenthood is perceived as economically unviable without the support of grandparents.These numbers, read like this, seem to belong to a sociological dimension distant from our world. Instead, they concern us profoundly. Because this survey doesn't just capture the mood of young Italians: photographs the future of mass market retail consumption.
If an entire generation doesn't believe in work, doesn't see a stable future, doesn't think they can start a family, and considers having a child a luxury reserved for those with family financial support, then we know exactly what this means for our sector in the next ten, twenty, thirty years. It means that Italian families will continue to shrink in number and size. Means that the young consumer will remain marginal. Means that The rich carts of families with two or three children will become increasingly rare. Means that the backbone of consumption in Italian stores will be made up of mature customers, over 55, and increasingly over 65.
This is exactly what emerged with extraordinary clarity during the event on November 12th, when, on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of GDO News, the distribution managers present said it clearly: People over 65 already have a significant impact on the profitability of sales outlets, while those under 35 represent a minimal and non-strategic share..
The Piepoli Institute, in its report, had outlined an Italy characterised by increasingly smaller family units, by a mature consumer, from a demand that no longer arises and will never be reborn in the young segment. That day, many spoke of an Italy that was aging, but above all, losing its demographic engine of consumption.
The survey published in recent days does nothing but confirm all this, with even greater clarity. Sociology has aligned itself with statistics, and statistics is aligning itself with the large-scale retail trade balance sheets.We are facing a structural, not a cyclical, change, and this requires a new way of interpreting the market. We are no longer entering an Italy that is "becoming" a country of older consumers: we are already in it.
It is an Italy where the main consumer will be increasingly adult, autonomous, pay attention to the price, health-sensitive, with completely different needs than in the past. And it's an Italy that will find new consumer benchmarks in private label, proximity, simplicity, and security. The survey, ultimately, simply puts down in black and white what large-scale retail managers had already understood. And from today, with this external confirmation, we can say it even more clearly: the future of Italian retail is written in demographics, and demography has already chosen its direction.
