The Italian consumer packaged goods sector looks to 2026 with moderate growth prospects, but with distinct trajectories depending on the strategic choices industry and distribution decide to make. This is according to Circana's new forecasts based on the Liquid Data™ platform, which outline a market that must strike a balance between protecting profitability and reviving demand.
According to the forecasting model, 2025 should close with a 1,9% increase in volumes, a 1,2% increase in average prices, and overall revenues of 3,1%. This normalization scenario paves the way for two possible paths in 2026: one more cautious, the other more oriented toward expansion.
In the first case – the margin defense scenario – The supply chain would favor conservative strategies, with a 1,6% increase in base prices and a reduction in promotional pressure of 0,6 percentage points (23,5%). The result would be a more stable but less dynamic market, with volumes slightly increasing (+0,2%) and revenues up 1,4%.
The second path – the volume consolidation scenario – instead, it hypothesizes a more proactive supply chain in supporting demand: a more moderate price increase (+1,0%) and greater investment in promotional activities (+0,4 percentage points), with pressure rising to 24,5%. In this case, volumes would grow more decisively (+1,7%), accompanied by revenues up 2,6%.
The gap between the two scenarios is significant: a 1,5 percentage point difference in volumes, highlighting how prices and promotions remain the main drivers in defining the competitive path of the sector.
The final decision will also depend on the macroeconomic context: from the trend in raw material and logistics costs to the new dynamics of global trade, and even potential geopolitical tensions. These factors could push retailers and manufacturers toward a more cautious approach or, conversely, one more focused on reviving consumption.
"2026 will be a year of uncertain balance between margin requirements and the need to sustain volumes"Our analyses help industrial companies and retailers plan with greater awareness in a complex environment," says Daniele Gilli, CEO of Circana Italia. "Clear data, distinct scenarios, and reliable forecasting models are now the basis for making effective decisions."
Circana thus confirms its position as a strategic partner for the entire supply chain, combining technology, artificial intelligence, and a unique information asset. The Liquid Data™ platform, fueled by a high-value data set and over sixty years of analytical experience, helps companies and retailers measure performance, understand purchasing behavior, and guide growth strategies in an increasingly complex and dynamic economy.
