November saw an economic picture divided between an improving business environment and a marked decline in consumer sentiment. According to the latest Istat surveys, household confidence fell from 97,6 to 95,0, reaching its lowest level since April 2025. Conversely, the composite business confidence index rose from 94,4 to 96,1, reaching its highest level since April 2024.
A general worsening of consumer sentiment prevails, with a particularly sharp decline in future expectations: economic sentiment fell from 99,3 to 96,5, personal sentiment fell from 97,0 to 94,5, while current sentiment fell from 100,2 to 98,6. The decline in future sentiment was even more pronounced, falling from 94,1 to 90,2, signaling growing concerns related to unemployment, savings, and household financial stability.
The business world, however, is showing signs of improved confidence. In market services, the index rose from 95,1 to 97,7, driven by improving orders and activity, albeit with more cautious medium-term expectations. Retail trade continues its positive trend: the index rose from 105,2 to 107,3 thanks to improved sales assessments, although future expectations are slightly lower and inventories are perceived to be increasing.
The manufacturing industry recorded an increase from 88,4 to 89,6, supported by positive trends across all its components, while the construction sector dropped slightly from 103,2 to 102,6: assessments of orders and business plans worsened, but employment expectations rose.
Investment intentions also play a significant role: according to the six-monthly report for manufacturing companies, investment spending shows a positive trend for both 2025 and 2026. Technical factors, such as the need to adapt to new technologies and automation, are key to companies' strategic decisions.
Overall, November 2025 highlights a diverging dynamic: while businesses are benefiting from a more favorable climate and are moderately optimistic about the modernization of their processes, consumers appear more cautious and concerned about their economic situation, with potential repercussions on domestic demand in the coming months.
