Grain and oilseed markets opened March amid considerable uncertainty, caught between geopolitical tensions, variable weather conditions, and renewed hedge fund activity, fueling volatility on the major international commodity exchanges. According to AHDB, UK feed wheat futures closed the week with a slight gain, but at a slower pace than European and US benchmarks. This gap widened the spread between the old and new harvests, suggesting that domestic wheat supplies remain substantial and continue to weigh on shorter-term maturities.
Wheat has shown greater strength on global markets. Prices in Paris and Chicago have risen, supported by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and by mixed weather conditions in key areas for American winter wheat. Expected precipitation in the US remains a key concern, in a context where the balance between climate risk and ample global supply still appears fragile.
Bidding wars launched by major importing countries have also helped support prices, though without triggering explosive movements, given the strong export competition among the main origins. Energy is also a key variable. Oil has resumed its upward trend following the escalation in the Middle East, and the strengthening crude oil price tends to impact logistics costs and biofuel dynamics, with indirect effects especially on the oilseed sector.
In France, exceptional rainfall in February has affected the condition of winter crops. Official estimates point to a slight deterioration in the conditions of soft wheat and barley, while spring planting is delayed compared to the seasonal average. However, weather forecasts for the coming weeks appear more favorable. For European barley, international demand remains strong and is helping to keep export prices buoyant, amid strong competitiveness of EU supply.
In the British physical market, spring wheat prices followed futures trends, with only limited adjustments. The spread between bread-making wheat and feed wheat remained stable, indicating a balance between milling demand and availability. For rapeseed, Paris futures showed a more nuanced trend, with fluctuations influenced by both the exchange rate and production prospects for 2026. In Ukraine, winter frosts may have affected some acreage, while in Europe, erratic weather conditions are prompting analysts to cautiously revise their estimates.
In Chicago, soybean oil strengthened sharply, driven by expectations regarding biofuel demand and the performance of crude oil. Soybeans are trending more cautiously, awaiting confirmation from international trading. Traders' attention is now focused on upcoming official updates. Overall, the outlook remains dominated by uncertainty. Geopolitics, climate, and energy will continue to be key variables for agricultural markets in the coming weeks, with supply chains and operators called upon to manage a scenario where volatility appears set to remain structurally high.
