China's pork market is entering the final quarter of 2025 amid mixed conditions, marked by declining prices and changes in foreign trade. According to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture (MARA), domestic wholesale prices stood at 19,32 yuan/kg at the end of September, down 10% from the previous year. Abundant supply and weak demand have prompted the government to urge farmers to reduce their breeding sows, which in June numbered 40,43 million, or 104% of the official reference level.
According to AHBD, production in the first nine months of 2025 reached 43,7 million tons, up 3% year-over-year, but the downward trend in prices is hindering the recovery plans of smaller farms. More integrated operators are maintaining positive margins, investing in efficiency and technology rather than expansion. Government price support measures, however, have not reversed the underlying market weakness. On the trade front, Chinese pork imports totaled 1,47 million tons in the first eight months of the year, in line with 2024 but with drastic changes in suppliers.
Spain remains the leading exporter with 369.000 tons (+8%), while the United States and Brazil saw declines of 14% and 31%, respectively. Conversely, the United Kingdom (+20%) and Russia (+233%) increased their share of the Chinese market. Since the beginning of September, China has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on European Union pork, ranging from 15,6% to 62,4%, impacting the competitiveness of European products. This measure, a response to EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars, is pushing importers to diversify their origins toward alternative suppliers. Overall, Chinese demand for pork remains stable, but with a profound rebalancing of trade routes, expected to continue in 2026.
