The cumulative data from January to September 2025 from the Nomisma Wine Monitor paint a picture of a general slowdown in wine imports to the main world markets compared to the same period in 2024. The international context appears weak, with widespread declines and increasing pressure on prices, with a few exceptions still showing signs of growth.
In terms of value, only three markets recorded positive trends: Germany (+4,6%), Switzerland (+2,4%), and Brazil (+3,5%). However, key markets such as the United Kingdom (-4,5%), China (-7,1%), and South Korea (-9,4%) posted contrasting results, confirming a slowdown in demand.
Volume trends are even more uneven. China has seen a dramatic decline (-22,4%), a sign of a profound shift in imported wine consumption. However, some non-European markets, such as South Korea (+7,4%), Australia (+6,4%), and Brazil (+4,8%), are holding steady or growing, confirming selective trends.
Italian wine also fits into this complex scenario. In the first nine months of 2025, exports from Italy recorded an overall decline of 2,2% in value and 1% in volume. The most notable exceptions came from Canada and Brazil: the former grew by 9,3% in value and 11,6% in volume, the latter by 8,7% in value and 2,7% in volume. These positive signs, however, do not offset the widespread difficulties.
Germany continues to offer encouraging signs for Italy, with an 8,2% increase in value, despite substantially stable volumes (-1,3%). Markets such as China, Japan, and Switzerland, however, remain struggling, continuing the negative trend that began in 2024.
In the United States, the world's largest wine import market, volumes are holding steady but value is declining. Overall bottled wine imports are down 5,8% in value and up 0,1% in volume. For Italian wine, the gap is even more pronounced: down 8,3% in value versus up 1,8% in volume, a sign of a reduction in average prices due to tariffs and price containment policies.
Canada remains one of the most dynamic markets in 2025. Despite an overall decline in wine imports (-7,6% in value), Italy is experiencing double-digit growth, also benefiting from the decline of US wines, whose imports have plummeted by over 70%. France and Spain are also benefiting, temporarily reshaping the competitive balance.
In Germany, there are signs of recovery (+6,3% in value and +0,7% in volume), with Italy strengthening its leadership. Conversely, the United Kingdom continues to decline, with a 5% decline in value and 2,6% in volume, affecting all major suppliers.
Overall, 2025 looks set to be a year of adjustment for the international wine industry: volume growth doesn't always generate value, and price competition becomes central. For Italian wine, the challenge in the coming months will be to dominate the most resilient markets and adapt to new, rapidly changing trade balances.
