In a recent webinar broadcasted on LinkedIn by Cibus Link, Areté – The Agrifood Intelligence, an independent research, analysis and economic consulting firm specialised in agriculture, agribusiness and the related markets, explained to the audience the dynamics of tomato harvesting and processing in 2024 at a global level, also providing forecasts for the 2025-2026 campaign.
The 2024 tomato season was unique because started with high expectations, but results did not fully meet them. In Italy, production was expected to increase compared to 2023, as in China and Spain. In the United States, however, a production decline was anticipated due to decisions made by the industry and supply chain. However, weather conditions had a significant impact on production.
Production in Italy
In Italy, initial estimates projected over 5.5 million tons. However, the final result was between 5.25 and 5.3 million tons. The situation varied between the North and Central-South regions. In the North, heavy rains and floods in spring and summer reduced production. Harvesting was delayed, and total volume fell by 14%, reaching 2.4 million tons. This was the lowest level since 2019, despite an increase in cultivated areas. In the South, production increased. However, drought conditions raised costs by reducing water reserves during the summer. The tomato processing campaign also faced delays, leading to higher production costs.
Global Trends
Globally, China recorded a 30% increase compared to 2023. Spain recovered by 18% after two years of drought. In the United States, however, production dropped by 14%, more than expected. Overall, global production grew by 4%. However, initial forecasts anticipated a stronger increase, mainly driven by China.
Contracts and Prices in Italy
Uncertainties also affected tomato purchasing contracts in Italy. Agreements should ideally be finalized before planting, but this does not always happen. In the North, no official agreement was reached in 2024. In the South, the agreement was signed only in June, when the season was already underway. Additionally, the contracted price did not cover the production difficulties experienced during the summer. Prices of processed tomato products fluctuated. After a slight decline at the beginning of the season, prices rose again toward the end of the year. Some products, such as pizza tomato sauce, reached record levels. Double and triple concentrated tomato paste also recovered after an initial decline caused by expectations of strong Chinese production.
Tomato harvest: forecasts 2025
A BBC investigation highlighted a slowdown in Chinese exports. This could affect global demand and future production choices. For 2025, the United States is expected to see a 10% decline in production in California. Volumes will drop from 10.25 million tons in 2024 to 9.25 million tons in 2025. This strategy aims to rebalance supply and demand after years of stock accumulation. China is also expected to reduce production.
In Europe, AMITOM forecasts a 5% decrease for member countries in the 2025-2026 season. However, Italy is expected to see a 6% increase, mainly in the North. In the South, production may decline slightly.
In Northern Italy, an agreement was reached on tomato prices, setting them at €150 per ton (+5% compared to 2024). This will ensure better planning for the season. In the South, negotiations will begin in February.
Future Challenges
Water supply remains a critical issue. In Spain, some producers predict a 22% production decline in 2025, following the recovery in 2024. Turkey is also expected to reduce production by 4%.
Overall, the global industrial tomato market is heading toward lower availability. The most significant declines are expected in California and China. In Italy, however, production may increase, supported by higher prices compared to 2024.
